Yesterday we brought together members for our latest economic briefing with Lai Wah Co of the Bank of England alongside our hosts AlixPartners.
The Bank of England’s latest forecast has growth slated at 1.5% in 2025, with inflation at 2.7% and unemployment holding steady at 4.2%
That might be a touch on the optimistic side, if our Slido poll capturing the mood in the room is anything to go by…
- 45% felt that the additional costs imposed by the Budget would make them more cautious about hiring and growth.
- 53% are planning on about the same level of performance in 2025 as they had experienced in 2024.
- And 42% are carefully managing headcount, with a recruitment freeze or even some redundancies.
Lots of “Big Ifs” dominated the conversation…
- Big If 1: How will the business reaction to the Budget play out in the coming months?
- Big If 2: What will the Trump election mean for trade and global markets?
- Big If 3: What does a “new normal” look like for the UK following a series of economic shocks?
- Big If 4: How will conflict in the Middle East play out for energy prices?
- Big If 5: What impact will increases in NICs and wages have on a labour market, that has proven resilient to date?
We also had insights into two key sectors for London: FinTech and Real Estate.
Immy Spence at Airwallex said the big bear factor for fintech was the pull of talent towards AI firms. On the plus side, a strong bounce back in travel, burgeoning e‑commerce platforms and the growth of AI firms themselves all add up to a healthy demand for a global payments platform.
Meanwhile, Andrea Trozzi at AlixPartners mapped out a “K shaped recovery” for the real estate sector, capturing the strong contrast in performance between the premium market and the rest. The “maturity wall” of capital is building, with big trends set to shake things up:
- Increased Capex requirements, driven by ESG
- Increasingly demanding tenants
- A need to play ‘catch up’ on investment in many properties
Get in touch to secure a place at our next session on Thursday 13 February 2025.