With less than four months to go until Londoners head to the polls for the local elections, one fairly safe assumption is that the capital’s political map will look different – perhaps radically so – once the dust settles after 7 May.
What does that mean for businesses operating in the city? Our latest What Next For London? briefing – hosted by Imperial College London – explored this question with an expert panel featuring Kanda Consulting’s Karen Alcock, BBC London’s former political editor Tim Donovan and Queen Mary, University of London and the Mile End Institute’s Dr Patrick Diamond.
In the immediate term, one of the speakers flagged that big decisions – particularly from a planning perspective – are pretty much off the table until September as local politicians turn their focus to the coming election.
Labour won overall control of 22 boroughs across the capital in 2022 and it seems – given the prevailing national political mood – this may prove to be a high-water mark. Karen highlighted how the rise of the Greens and Independent left-wing candidates is putting pressure on Labour’s core vote. Meanwhile, Reform UK are targeting success in outer boroughs in the south and east of the city – Bexley, Bromley, Havering and Croydon – and Liberal Democrats look likely to tighten their grip on south-west London.
Beyond these headline trends, fragmentation of the vote across different boroughs could lead to the winner of wards being decided by the narrowest of margins. That raises the prospect of some boroughs being under no overall control as no single party secures a clear majority. Karen flagged this is likely to lead to delays in forming administrations, increased likelihood of coalitions collapsing or changing mid-term, and committees and councils being more balanced – giving individual councillors more sway.
The shifting political map will also affect how London Councils – the collective of local government in the capital – will be able to maintain the cross-party consensus that has generally held firm in recent decades when it comes to campaigning on the city’s priorities on the national stage. One speaker queried whether the end of Labour’s political dominance in London could be a good thing for the city. A more electorally competitive capital may dissuade complacency among politicians and encourage parties to fight harder to secure the votes of Londoners, which could be reflected in future policy making.
We will run further events and activity both before and after the polls close on 7 May to help members prepare and respond, including by engaging with key decision makers. Keep an eye on our events calendar for more.