London’s political map is now a patchwork of different colours following last week’s local elections. This shift has significant implications for businesses, Londoners and politicians at all levels.
Our latest breakfast briefing – kindly hosted by Delancey – brought together an expert panel featuring LSE’s Professor Tony Travers CBE, City AM’s Alys Denby and Lowick Hedry’s Kevin McKeever to take a deep dive into the results and what they could mean going forward.
The national picture following the elections pointed to a bruising night for Labour and the Conservatives, but in many ways, London told a more complicated story. Professor Travers highlighted how the results in the capital were Labour’s worst since 2006 and the Conservatives’ second worst since 1964 – and yet the two parties performed significantly better in the capital than the rest of the country.
Labour lost 12 of 21 councils it previously controlled, while the Conservatives made small net gains in councils – most notably Westminster – and seats. The Lib Dems further tightened their grip on their South-West London stronghold, while the Green Party and Reform both made inroads for the first time.
The real winner, however, was “no overall control”. Across nine London boroughs, no single party now has a commanding grip on power.
That reflects a broader shift away from traditional two-party politics towards a more fragmented, multi-party system. London – and increasingly England as a whole – now resembles a five or even six-party political environment, which makes for a far more unpredictable environment. This may force us to get used to coalition governments of the kind regularly witnessed in the Netherlands or Scandinavia.
That fragmentation will have real implications for businesses and investors.
The most immediate consequence is likely to be slower and more politicised decision-making at borough level. Administrations dependent on fragile alliances or informal agreements will find it harder to maintain discipline, particularly on contentious issues such as planning and regeneration.
Planning committees are therefore likely to become even more political battlegrounds than before. Major regeneration schemes, in particular, may struggle to secure consistent support, given that some parties appear committed to imposing stretching local requirements at a time when housing delivery is lagging far below target.
At the same time, fragmentation at borough level could strengthen the hand of City Hall and encourage a more muscular approach. If councils oppose major strategic decisions, pressure will grow for more powers and responsibilities to sit with the Mayor of London and other metro mayors to accelerate delivery.
The fact that London is now in play politically could also shift the dynamics of policymaking at a national level. It may encourage the Government and other parties to focus more on issues – such as housing affordability – that have the potential to swing votes in the city as we head towards a Mayoral election in 2028, followed by a general election no later than 2029.
The fallout from the local elections is still playing out with the parties vying to turn around their fortunes – as witnessed by the political infighting in Westminster over the past few days – or build on the momentum that results have provided.
Our events programme will provide members with insight into what this all means for business and provide opportunities to engage with key decision-makers, including through our Borough Leader series, which restarts next month. Keep an eye on our events calendar for more.