Building confidence in London's transport future

Transport is ultimately about people. Every journey on the capital’s network connects residents with jobs, education, leisure and opportunity. That principle shapes not only how services are run, but how TfL encourages the next generation to understand and use the network through initiatives such as its Travel for Life programme for young Londoners.

A people-first approach shaped much of the conversation when I sat down with Claire Mann, Chief Operating Officer, and Patrick Doig, Chief Financial Officer, for the third instalment of BusinessLDN’s 2026 series with TfL’s senior leadership team, kindly sponsored by AtkinsRéalis and hosted by Derwent.

The discussion took place at another important moment for TfL. With Prime Minister Andy Burnham placing devolution at the centre of the Government’s agenda and consultation now underway on the West London Orbital, the powers and funding certainty London needs to deliver future infrastructure are moving up the agenda. BusinessLDN is leaning into that debate, as we set out in our recently published A new deal for London 2.0. Greater freedom for the Mayor to borrow against future revenues and use mechanisms such as land value capture could help unlock the Bakerloo Line Extension and West London Orbital, connecting communities, supporting new homes and opening up economic opportunities.

One of the clearest messages was that long-term confidence matters just as much as the amount of funding available. Longer settlements would also transform TfL’s ability to plan and deliver. Drawing on TfL’s experience of successive funding arrangements, Patrick noted that its current four-year arrangement is a considerable improvement on the five-day deals of the past, but a return to six- or 10-year settlements would provide far greater certainty. He argued that devolution may not produce substantially more funding, but about giving London greater control and certainty over how available funding is deployed. More reliable, longer-term revenue streams would allow TfL and the Mayor to plan investment with greater confidence and could help bring forward projects that support new homes, jobs and economic growth.

The same principle applies to maintaining the existing network. Patrick highlighted the growing pressure on TfL’s renewals programme, with the investment requirement currently estimated to exceed available resources by around £400 million to £500 million a year. Funding for roads, bridges, tunnels and other assets that do not generate revenue directly can be particularly difficult to secure, while complex approval processes can add further delays and costs. Closing that gap by the Government providing funding certainty beyond 2030 is key to tackling the renewals backlog and keeping pace with renewals.

Funding, governance and long-term certainty are not abstract policy questions. They directly shape TfL’s ability to operate one of the world’s largest transport networks and deliver for the millions of passengers who rely on it each week. Claire Mann noted that TfL remains highly regarded internationally, with peers in the COMET network regularly looking to London for examples of best practice. Claire also reflected on the pace of change facing transport operators, noting that artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles and new mobility services are rapidly moving from emerging technologies to operational considerations for networks across the world.

The institutional landscape is changing too. Claire emphasised that Great British Railways will need to be built around passengers, without disadvantaging TfL because it sits outside its formal structure. She argued that the priority should be a simpler and more seamless experience for customers, regardless of how responsibilities are divided between different transport operators. The complexity of routes such as those serving Wimbledon illustrates why close partnership working will be essential. For passengers, the test will be whether the system feels coherent, regardless of which organisation owns or manages each part.

Improving that passenger experience will depend not only on institutional arrangements, but also on how TfL uses technology and pricing to respond to changing travel patterns. TfL is also exploring how fares and technology can support ridership. Discussing fares innovation, Patrick noted the recent Weekend Hopper promotion, which offered unlimited Saturday and Sunday bus and tram travel for £1.75 a day between 25 July and 31 August 2026. While the scheme saved passengers around £15 million over the summer, it did not significantly alter demand, showing that price alone cannot determine whether people travel. Reward schemes delivered through TfL’s app are among the options being considered as it looks for new ways to provide value and encourage journeys.

On buses, TfL is considering a publicly owned operator in response to pressures on delivery capacity, routes attracting no bids and slower-than-needed progress towards zero-emission targets. Claire explained that this would be a trial rather than a universal solution. Alongside it, the London on the Move strategy is improving traffic signals, cutting journey times and optimising bus arrivals, while using lane rental to reduce disruption from roadworks.

AI could make a practical difference to both safety and operations. Claire pointed to applications including visual-recognition technology that could identify passengers in difficulty or detect risks on platforms, while other applications include monitoring fare evasion and using cameras on trains to locate sections of track requiring repair. Patrick added that TfL is looking at how AI can be introduced across its operations while maintaining appropriate human oversight. Human oversight will remain essential, and regulatory hurdles mean widespread adoption will take time.

Many of these questions are also being explored through BusinessLDN’s AI Steering Group, run in partnership with Deloitte, which is considering how organisations can adopt AI responsibly and deliver practical benefits for London, its businesses and its workforce.

Innovation on the network is only one side of the story. New forms of mobility are also beginning to reshape how people move around the capital. Autonomous vehicles will likewise need to be integrated carefully. Claire stressed that TfL must balance new travel choices with the need to keep people moving efficiently by bus, bicycle and other established modes. Cooperation and information sharing during pilot stages will be crucial to achieving that.

As well as supporting movement, we know that transport assets act as a catalyst for supporting housing and driving economic growth. Patrick highlighted how Places for London is using borrowing and joint ventures to unlock more value from its estate, including through work with Platform4 at Liverpool Street and opportunities around other major transport interfaces such as Waterloo.

The right partnership model will depend on the asset, but Patrick pointed to examples such as the Silvertown Tunnel as demonstrating how public-private collaboration can work. Bringing together public land, private-sector expertise and patient investment could help deliver schemes that would otherwise remain out of reach.

The conversation also turned to sustainability and resilience. Patrick argued that securing sufficient power capacity will be essential to the network’s future, while Claire emphasised that TfL must work with Network Rail and other partners to ensure ageing assets can withstand more extreme weather. Preparing before the next period of intense heat will be vital to maintaining services and customer confidence.

Taken together, the session underlined the breadth of the task facing TfL. It must renew ageing infrastructure, keep services reliable, prepare for climate change, adopt new technology responsibly and help unlock London’s next phase of growth, all while maintaining financial discipline.

That cannot be achieved through short-term fixes. Whether through fiscal devolution, longer funding settlements or greater certainty over future investment, TfL needs the authority and confidence to plan ahead and build a transport system that continues to serve Londoners and support the capital’s prosperity.

Following the session, Margot Orr Jones, Regional Client Director – London and the South East at AtkinsRéalis, said: ​“People are at the heart of TfL – it’s not just a transportation business but also a catalyst for connection. TfL moves us around London, but it also educates, promotes financial and physical accessibility, and keeps people safe. Putting people first leads to better results when making decisions that balance financial footing and operational improvements.”