Kicking off our Budget blog post series, the BusinessForBakerloo campaign outlines why infrastructure investment will be key to London and the UK’s success over the years ahead.
As we approach the Autumn Budget, the Chancellor faces two central missions: to boost economic growth and to help deliver 1.5 million new homes, cornerstones of the Government’s agenda since taking office. Achieving both requires ambition and commitment to large-scale infrastructure projects that can unlock homes, create jobs and connect communities.
The Bakerloo Line Upgrade and Extension (BLUE) is precisely that kind of project. It is a ready-to-go scheme that would modernise one of London’s oldest Underground lines, extend vital transport links deep into south-east London, and directly support the Government’s growth and housing ambitions.
BLUE would deliver £1.5 billion in additional economic value every year, create 150,000 jobs across the UK, and unlock more than 100,000 new homes. By replacing 50-year-old trains, upgrading signalling, and extending the line first to Lewisham, and ultimately to Hayes in Bromley, this project would have a transformational impact on London and areas beyond. The initiative would convert the Bakerloo Line from the poor relation of the Tube network into a world-class, high-capacity link stretching from Harrow in the north-west to Hayes in the south-east.
The impact this would have on housing delivery is particularly striking. Independent analysis by Hatch shows that 107,000 new homes could be unlocked along the route, a significant share of the 1.5 million homes the Government aims to deliver. Of these, 20,400 would be directly enabled by the extension, making a substantial contribution toward London’s annual target of 88,000 new homes. More than 10,000 of these “dependent” homes are subject to a Grampian condition, which essentially prevents their construction until the Bakerloo Line extension is delivered.
The project would unlock huge swathes of new commercial floorspace on the Old Kent Road and across the New Cross, Lewisham and Catford Opportunity Areas, resulting in around 9,700 additional local jobs. The scheme would also significantly increase access between areas of deprivation and low educational attainment and key centres of skilled employment. For example, 1.2 million more jobs would be accessible within 45 minutes travel time of Catford.
Crucially for the Government, BLUE’s benefits extend far beyond London. TfL’s supply chain is nationwide, with new Bakerloo Line trains expected to be built in Yorkshire, supporting skilled manufacturing jobs and local growth. Like the Elizabeth Line, the Bakerloo Line upgrade would rapidly repay its investment through the additional revenue it generates.
While it was disappointing that the Chancellor made no direct reference to BLUE in the Comprehensive Spending Review earlier this year, the £2.2 billion boost to TfL’s Capital Renewals Programme was a welcome step in the right direction. The next step must be bolder.
This autumn, the Chancellor should add BLUE to the National Infrastructure Pipeline and confirm full funding for the upgrade and extension. Doing so would send a powerful message that the Government is serious about delivering growth and homes, not through short-term fixes, but through the long-term investments that unlock opportunity for decades to come. With the public finances stretched, the success of the Elizabeth Line and the Northern Line Extension to Battersea have demonstrated how major projects can be delivered through the Government and businesses working side by side.
The Bakerloo Line Upgrade and Extension is shovel-ready. Once funded, it will create jobs, drive growth, and help meet the Government’s housing targets. The 2025 Budget is the moment to make BLUE a reality, and to show that this Government backs Britain’s builders and London’s future.