Until recently, Britain’s railways existed in something of a policy limbo. Sir Keith Williams had been working on his review since late 2018. The first phase of HS2 was progressing, having received royal assent in 2017 shortly before the details of Network Rail’s ‘Control Period 6’ funding and specifications (covering 2019 – 2024) were published. It’s not that things weren’t progressing, but we were all waiting for greater clarity about the strategic direction for the industry. The pandemic added fresh delays but recent months have seen a wave of announcements and consultations.
The two most significant are the Integrated Rail Plan or ‘IRP’ (November 2021) and the Williams-Shapps Plan for Rail (May 2021). The former confirmed that phase two of HS2 (extending the line from Birmingham to Manchester) would progress, but cancelled the plans for the eastern leg to Yorkshire in a disappointing reduction of overall capacity, connectivity, and productivity gains (you can read what we said at the time here). The latter announced the biggest shake up in the rail industry since privatisation three decades ago. A new body called Great British Railways (GBR) will be established as an independent guiding mind, bringing together infrastructure and operations into one integrated organisation. This presents a real opportunity for improvement but much of the detail is yet to be fleshed out.
In responding to both of these developments, we have stressed the fact that levelling up in the Midlands and the North benefits London, just as investments in the capital benefit the rest of the UK. The capital remains the source and/or destination for 63% of all journeys on the UK rail network. Pre-pandemic, 406 million of these journeys were to or from other regions. This, of course, is a reminder that in an international and interconnected economy the UK’s towns and cities will level up or level down together.
With the capital’s roads already back to pre-pandemic levels of congestion, London’s short-term economic recovery and long-term agglomeration-based productivity will be held back – with serious knock-on effects for the whole of the UK – if public transport provision fails to keep pace with customer needs. Getting this right won’t be possible without a sustainable funding deal for Transport for London, but it also requires maximising the opportunities that both HS2 and GBR present.
In responding to recent consultations, London First has highlighted:
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The risk is that the temporary reduction in passenger numbers results in lower revenues, leading to cuts to services and investments, which in turn makes them less appealing, leading to permanently lower passenger numbers and a cycle of decline in which passenger numbers, revenues, and services are all falling. Until the settled patterns of future transport demand are clear, service levels should as far as possible be maintained especially on metro-style services (see also our joint letter to the Treasury on this subject.)
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The criticality of funding stability to the effective and efficient delivery of investments and operations. We are concerned about the achievability of some of the savings targets in recent announcements and the consequent impact on the UK’s net-zero and levelling up ambitions.
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The value of having a pipeline of investment that is properly planned and well integrated with other infrastructure providers. This can stimulate additional investment in secondary industries and facilities, not to mention in the training and skills development of the people who deliver these projects. There is a serious risk of labour shortages in critical parts of the rail investment timeline if projects are not part of a coherent pipeline for which businesses and skills providers can plan.
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London continues to need investment, particularly when the Greater London Authority is still forecasting substantial population growth in the medium to long term, with a central case seeing an increase from around nine million people today to 11 million by 2050. The development of projects in the capital including the upgrading of rolling stock and signalling systems, the extension of the Bakerloo Line, taking the DLR to Thamesmead, and Crossrail 2 have been paused but the short-term shock of the pandemic should not be allowed to prevent long-term planning.
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There would be significant benefits to reform of the rail-fares and ticketing structures to provide simplicity for customers and restore trust in pricing. The aspiration for modernised “London-style” ticketing systems in other large cities is very positive, but the strategy for national level integration remains unclear with a risk that multiple regional back-office functions could prevent a unified customer experience.
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London’s role as the front door to the UK could be enhanced by thinking more holistically about the role of rail in dispersing international visitors to the UK. London was the point of entry for 53% of international trips in 2019 and visitors who leave London to visit other parts of the country contribute £641 million to local economies outside the capital. Engagement with tourism and inward investment agencies to develop an integrated plan could enable a greater number of international visitors to explore beyond the capital.
The London First submission to the Transport Select Committee regarding the IRP is available here whilst our submission to the Great British Railways Transition Team on their development of a Whole Industry Strategic Plan is available here. The opportunity for early engagement that the latter in particular presents is very welcome as the successful development of GBR will require transparent and collaborative engagement with the private sector and regional authorities including City Hall and TfL. Both Government and GBR will need to embrace the significant commercial and operational expertise from the last three decades of the UK’s railways, as well as the private sector’s knowledge of international best practice, if the aspirations of the Williams-Shapps Plan for Rail and the strategic objectives in the Whole Industry Strategic Plan are to be realised.