On Tuesday 28th February, we welcomed members and stakeholders to our third ‘What Next for London?’ briefing, hosted by Eversheds Sutherland. Guided by our policy team, our new series shares insight into the inner workings of the capital as well as opportunities for members to get involved in our work.
Our Chief Executive, John Dickie, opened the briefing with an overview of the macroeconomic and political landscape in London. The economy is looking more resilient than before Christmas with recession narrowly avoided and a budget surplus from lower borrowing than previously expected. However, strikes still continue to disrupt businesses and their employees whilst the cost-of-living crisis is hitting many Londoners.
Looking at the longer-term, the political polls look fairly one-sided at first glance but there is still all to play for. The recent Northern Ireland breakthrough with the Windsor Framework could mark a turning of the tide for the Tories. The Mayoral elections will take place in May 2024 and the result of Sadiq Khan’s string of new announcements such as free school meals and the more decisive action on ULEZ will be intriguing.
While polls currently point to victory for the Labour Mayor, several areas could determine the result: the move in London from Supplementary Voting to simple First Past the Post; the introduction of new voter ID requirements; the impact of Labour moving ahead on the expansion of ULEZ this summer; and the appeal of the opposition candidates who are yet to be announced.
People
Our Policy Delivery Director, Mark Hilton, shared an update on the Local Skills Improvement Plan (LSIP). The LSIP will play a key role in tackling skills shortages by bringing employers, educators and other key stakeholders together to create a blueprint for transforming the skills system to meet local needs. These issues are not new but have been exacerbated by the pandemic, in turn holding up business growth due to skills shortages. That’s why we are working with our partners Federation of Small Businesses London (FSB), London Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), and Confederation of British Industry London (CBI), to create a data-driven, evidence-based employer-led plan to address some of the gaps across all sectors.
Since the pandemic, many older employees have left workforce and we recognise there needs to be a drive to encourage these individuals and others back into the workforce. Digital poverty, the cost of childcare and high transport fares are also barriers to training and work, with many feeling they are better off not in work. The focus should be on access to free training and mechanisms that incentivise return to work, such as travel bursaries and widespread adoption of London Living Wage, as well as reform to childcare policy.
To learn more about our People work, click here or contact Mark Hilton.
Connectivity
Adam Tyndall, Programme Director for Transport, provided a detailed snapshot of public transport usage levels and revealed there has been a slow but gradual rise across the board. Travel into and across London remains high and above pre-pandemic levels for leisure; whilst commuting levels remain below. Heathrow Airport recently announced promising results for passenger numbers that would have seemed unlikely only a year ago, and over 100 million people have made journeys on the new Elizabeth Line — including nearly half of all Londoners.
On roads and congestion, the risk for the Mayor is that the next election becomes a referendum on ULEZ. It is an open question on how many of London’s drivers feel the pinch as much as they expected to when the system comes into play this August given the restrictions imposed by the ULEZ are not necessarily as onerous as some may think.
Industrial action continues with no deal in sight, and more strikes announced to coincide for Budget Day. The government at this point could be playing the long game and waiting for inflation to fall before striking with a deal that matches that level.
International travel and freight remain high on our agenda. In particular, looking ahead, we are keen to ensure the future of the river will be on all mayoral candidates to make better use of freight.
To learn more about our Connectivity work, click here or contact Adam Tyndall.
Place
Sarah Bevan, Director of Planning & Development, shared insight into planning reform which is progressing slower than the sector would like or need. Whilst Michael Gove has stayed in post as Secretary of State, Rachel Maclean, the new Housing Minister, has become the 15th in just 13 years – this lack of consistency is precluding any substantial progress for what is such a crucial role.
Legislation-wise, the Levelling-up and Regeneration Bill (LURB) continues to trundle through parliament, now at Committee Stage in the House of Lords. The main sticking point being around the introduction of an Infrastructure Levy, to replace the Community Infrastructure Levy, based on a percentage of the gross value of the development.
To learn more about our Place work, click here or contact Sarah Bevan.